Us Recession 2024 Probability. On average, recessions last for 10 months and see a decline in real gdp from peak to trough of about 2.8%. Graph and download economic data for nber based recession indicators for the united states from the period following the peak through the trough (usrec).
If you look at the following chart tracking the probability of recession since 30 april 1983, the period from july 2024 through september 2025 represents the most likely period in which the nber. However, the new york fed’s recession probability model suggests there is still a 61.8% chance of a u.s.